Archive for September, 2006

The South Florida Real Estate market. What is really happening?

Tuesday, September 26th, 2006

Has the Bubble Burst? What will happen to the South Florida Real Estate market and some other economic outcomes?
 

We are so lucky that we did not get any more hurricanes this year. If we had, that could have really affected our housing market, by creating totally unaffordable insurance premiums. Now I hope that never happens, although we are getting close to that. Now the Real estate market is slowing down and in some cases it is still rising, while in other places it is declining.  The reasons:
 

1) Depending on the area, and the house. If somebody paid too much money last year due to speculation, well then that person may have to deal with some kind of price adjustment, or they can just ride it out with time.
It may take some people about 2 to 3 years for the price to catch up. For others it will only take about 1 year.
After that prices should continue to rise between 10 and 15 percent annually. That is the good thing about Real Estate. Also in some emerging markets, where lots of new homes, condos and business are we will see a little extra price stabilization and then some more rises. The major declines will be in the older neighborhoods where older homes that were build over 20 or 30 years ago, will become less desirable as people have many more new homes and neighborhood to choose from.
 
Meanwhile for Stocks, which Bubbled in 2001, It has now been over 5 years and the stock market still has not revisited its all time high. Yet it is very close to that. I am also pretty sure that it will make it to that level before this year is up.
The reason: for one, gas prices are declining. This alone can help keep inflation in check, holding back any more interest rare hikes and giving the Dow Jones just enough steam to pass 11,700 again.
 

I can almost bet that it will do that and pass that. The major economist’s always have to have something up their sleeve to help push the markets up. So if you are shorting some stocks. It may be time to buy again, or buy to cover those stocks!


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